This episode of The Stargazy Brief features Derek Hoyt, co-founder of GovSignals, in a deep conversation about how AI, data signals, and proposal technology are transforming the GovCon capture and proposal management landscape. Derek and host Chris Carter unpack the myths around SAM.gov, the importance of early intent-driven capture, and why many federal contractors waste time chasing pre-wired or unqualified opportunities.
Derek explains how GovSignals uses AI to automate go/no-go decisions, extract insights from FPDS and RFI data, and identify real patterns, such as contracting officer behavior, incumbent weaknesses, and funding turbulence, that separate winning teams from compliance factories. He outlines a new paradigm where proposal teams blend human expertise with machine intelligence to prioritize pipeline quality over volume and use data-driven signals across every stage of the opportunity lifecycle.
The conversation moves into the rising importance of FedRAMP and CMMC Level 2 compliance, with Derek clarifying the risks of using non–FedRAMP-certified software for managing Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI). He explains how noncompliance can lead to serious penalties and provides practical advice for vetting vendors using the FedRAMP Marketplace.
As the discussion expands, Derek highlights shifts in the federal contracting market, noting that traditional services contracts are slowing while DoD and space-focused product companies are thriving. He shares strategies for small and midsize businesses to diversify into SLED and commercial markets, build resilience during government shutdowns, and future-proof their business models.
Closing the episode, Derek advises proposal professionals on career stability and growth, emphasizing that skills in communication, critical thinking, and process management, combined with AI literacy, are becoming essential assets in both government and private sectors.
This interview delivers rich insights into AI proposal software, GovCon capture management, and data-driven RFP strategy, answering key search intents such as “How to win federal contracts,” “What is FedRAMP compliance,” and “Best AI tools for proposal management.”
For anyone in proposal tech, sales enablement, or government procurement, this episode is a roadmap to thriving in the next generation of AI-powered proposal management.
Chris @ Stargazy: Hey, welcome to the Stargazy Brief. Today we are talking with Derek Hoyt, co-founder of GovSignals, a GovCon procurement, capture, and proposal management system built specifically for the GovCon market.
Now Derek has worked as an intelligence officer for the U.S. government, a program manager for places like Palantir and Amazon. He has such a rich U.S. GovCon background, along with technology and AI.
Today we learn:
The top things you need in your software to make sure that you don't get fined or kicked out of your contract if you're working in GovCon.
The top signals to look for before, during, and after go/no-go qualification decisions to make sure you truly win your RFPs.
And what to do if you see an RFP on SAM.gov that’s not really meant for you, but you still want to go for it.
Chris @ Stargazy: Hey Derek, welcome to the Stargazy Brief. Thank you so much for being on.
Derek Hoyt: Appreciate it. Thanks, Chris.
Chris @ Stargazy: So Derek, I think what people are really craving are the backroom conversations — what they’re not going to hear or post about on LinkedIn. I want to hit those today — the myths, traps, and new win playbook around GovCon proposals and capture. Let’s start at the very beginning. For most teams, that’s SAM.gov. It feels like a great equalizer. Everyone can go to the same place to find the same opportunities. Therefore, we’re all equal. But do you really think SAM.gov is actually a fair playing field?
Derek Hoyt: So SAM.gov provides compliance for the visibility of these procurements. It’s where deals are going to be seen. It’s not necessarily where deals are born.
By the time something hits SAM.gov, there have been months of work and preparation by contracting officers. There’s been shaping behind the scenes, program managers aggregating requirements, incumbents defending their turf.
So yes, it’s technically open, but not equal access. The real game starts months earlier — SAM.gov is just the formal declaration of opportunity. That’s why at GovSignals we bring in holistic data sources — not just SAM.gov — including IDIQs and contract vehicles to see the full scope of bidding opportunities.
Chris @ Stargazy: What would you say to the small or medium business that really wants to be successful bidding in GovCon, but they’re just waiting for those deals to come in on SAM.gov and bid on them? They’re trying to bid as much as possible to hopefully win a few.
Derek Hoyt: My biggest recommendation, especially for small and mid-sized clients, is to partner. That’s how you build past performance and credibility.
Trying to go direct from zero to one as a prime on SAM.gov — I wouldn’t recommend it. Look at who the primes are. Where can your services fit into their suite? They want small and mid-size companies to bring in.
Partner first. Use platforms like GovSignals to find opportunities that align with current prime vendors.
Chris @ Stargazy: If I’m a small or medium business who really wants to respond to something I see but I don’t know who to partner with — should I not be bidding at all? What should I do?
Derek Hoyt: It’s a two-step process. Step one — understand if your services are valuable to the federal market. Use systems that scan opportunities, ideally automated with AI.
If yes, then when you find an opportunity where you can meet requirements but don’t have the team or size, take that and go to networking events, trade shows, find prime vendors, and build your network.
Say, “I can provide value beyond competitors — let’s partner. You handle the compliance and programmatic side; I’ll bring my solutions.” It’s a win-win.
Chris @ Stargazy: That’s relevant beyond GovCon. But once you’re in the game, the obsession is pipeline. Every BD swears they’re shaping deals. How much of the average GovCon pipeline is actually real?
Derek Hoyt: I have a somewhat cynical view — I’d cut it in half. Pipeline health and viability — my gut says half is aspirational.
BD and capture folks need to get pegs on the board, so they conflate aspirational targets with viable ones. At GovSignals, we separate them — different Kanban boards for aspirational versus network-backed opportunities.
Chris @ Stargazy: What should proposal and capture people tell leaders who want to fill pipeline even when the opportunities aren’t real?
Derek Hoyt: In Q4, as you plan for the new fiscal year, look at bidding opportunities through fit and function to your core offering — that’s the first pass.
Then assess: do you have the network? Do you know the program manager? Do you have partners with access? Qualify bids higher when you have data-driven evidence.
Once something enters the pipeline, you commit finite resources. So be intentional — don’t just fill pipeline to fill it.
Chris @ Stargazy: People spend hours pulling RFIs and FPDS reports, but they often don’t feel like they have an edge. You’ve seen so many teams — is there something you see them doing wrong or unnecessarily that you’d tell them to stop doing?
Derek Hoyt: Yes. People confuse research with insight. Just because you collect FPDS data or read RFIs doesn’t mean you’ve found meaning.
The edge isn’t in the data — it’s in pattern recognition:
Who’s getting repeat awards?
Which contracting officers favor which vendors?
How do funding cycles align?
That’s where value lies. Everyone can visualize data — few extract meaning. That’s why at GovSignals, we built AI recommendation engines and auto-insight extraction tools — to pull insights out of data, not just visualize it.
Chris @ Stargazy: We’ve all had that moment where an RFP drops and we wonder, “Was this already written for someone else?” Is it true that by the time it’s public, the winner’s already picked?
Derek Hoyt: Roughly 70–30 split. About 70% are shaped toward someone — incumbents or those with access. They’ve done their job, worked with agencies, understood pain points, and shaped requirements.
But the other 30%? Winnable. Those are when incumbents are vulnerable — bad CPARs, leadership turnover, new contracting officers, or funding turbulence.
Those cracks are your chance. Don’t chase everything. Chase instability. Use data-driven insights to find that winnable 30%.
Chris @ Stargazy: What specific signals should we look for beyond competitor turbulence?
Derek Hoyt: Two of my favorites:
GAO and OIG reports — they literally show where agencies have pain and deficiencies. They name offices and people. Great conversation starters for capture managers.
Underfunded prime obligations — when a prime has unspent funds near contract end, approach them. Offer to help close that gap.
Winning capture teams read alternative signals, not just requirements fit.
Chris @ Stargazy: What if I can’t use GovSignals yet — maybe no budget. How can I do signal-based selling manually?
Derek Hoyt: Prioritize X-cube — limited resources require focus. Start with accounts or agencies where you already have alignment or access.
Then build a simple playbook:
Identify which signals give the best signal-to-noise ratio.
Keep it repeatable, even manually. Once you have a small but strong process, it feeds itself and scales.
Chris @ Stargazy: Are there new signals to pay attention to now that weren’t relevant a few years ago?
Derek Hoyt: Yes. Lately, services-related contracts have been struggling — many being canceled or underperforming. Meanwhile, DoD product companies, especially in space, are thriving.
So if you’re a service provider, consider partnering with space-sector primes or companies that need support. It’s a strong growth area — if you meet credentials and clearance requirements.
Chris @ Stargazy: So if you provide janitorial services, go clean a space station — not really, but point taken.
Derek Hoyt: Haha, exactly.
Chris @ Stargazy: Everyone wants a silver bullet. Are there hidden intent signals people miss, combinations that show high intent to move?
Derek Hoyt: That’s why we’ve automated much of the go/no-go review process at GovSignals. Every solicitation bundle has structured data, proposal instructions, SOW, appendices. Everyone sees the same info.
Instead of taking two weeks to review manually, AI can analyze and extract factors instantly, providing a framework of analysis.
Different roles, different signals:
BD/frontline looks for contact opportunities.
Capture managers qualify bids at speed.
Automation maximizes decision confidence and speed.
Chris @ Stargazy: So signals exist throughout the process — not just early on?
Derek Hoyt: Exactly — it’s a continuum.
Front-end BD looks for access and intent. When the RFP hits, you check compliance clauses and terms. Each stage has its own signal suite. Sometimes a last-minute T&C change can turn a green light into a red flag.
Each gate in the process must have tailored signal checks.
Chris @ Stargazy: Proposal teams often measure success by win rate or shortlist rate. Should we?
Derek Hoyt: Win rate feels good, but it’s misleading. You can manipulate it by changing the denominator.
You might have a 70% win rate by chasing only small, safe, pre-wired deals. That’s not growth — that’s comfort.
Better metrics:
Efficiency (how well resources are used)
Effectiveness (whether you’re playing the right game)
Track BD labor costs, opportunity quality, and actual growth outcomes — not just wins.
Chris @ Stargazy: Many of us already dislike win rate as a metric. What about measuring based on revenue percentage?
Derek Hoyt: Depends on who “we” is — BD, proposals, or full pipeline. For BD shops, track inputs vs. outputs — time and cost spent vs. booked or awarded revenue.
Example:A large DoD capture may take ten full-time staff for eight to ten months — a huge upfront cost. Track these investments over time to understand ROI. Balance inputs with realistic growth outcomes.
Chris @ Stargazy: I want to look at the proposal playbook most teams use. Usually, they just wait for something to pop up on SAM.gov, respond, and repeat. What should we be adding to that playbook — and who’s at risk if we keep running the old one?
Derek Hoyt: The new playbook is intent-driven capture.
Old model: wait for RFP → respond → repeat. New model: detect buyer intent early, shape before release, and automate processes.
Winning teams now blend:
Human relationships
AI-driven signal detection
Automation
Teams that don’t evolve become compliance factories — just checking boxes for contracting officers who need three bids. You’ll waste time just being a formality.
Chris @ Stargazy: You’ve been vocal about the risk of using non–FedRAMP-authorized tools for defense contracting. How big of a problem is this, and what does it say about the lack of clarity around controlled or classified data?
Derek Hoyt: It’s a real and growing problem. With AI tools entering GovCon, many developers don’t understand why security frameworks exist to safeguard Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI).
CUI is sensitive. Adversaries should never access it. So frameworks exist:
CMMC Level 2 → governs how companies handle and store CUI internally.
FedRAMP → governs cloud-based platforms that process or store CUI.
Some startups claim “we’re CMMC Level 2” and invite clients to upload CUI into non-FedRAMP cloud systems. That’s illegal — a False Claims Act and DFARS violation. Consequences: contract termination, fines, DOJ action.
Chris @ Stargazy: What questions should GovCon buyers ask to ensure software tools are compliant?
Derek Hoyt: Thankfully, it’s simple: Go to the FedRAMP Marketplace.
It’s a public registry of all FedRAMP-certified systems that have passed government audits. “FedRAMP Ready” isn’t enough; only fully certified platforms have 3PAO audits and federal sign-off.
Because the data belongs to the government, the government itself must approve the system.
Chris @ Stargazy: I’ll put that link in the show notes. And it’s a good reminder — proposal software isn’t just about features. It’s about working with people who’ve lived GovCon and understand the compliance rules.
Derek Hoyt: Exactly. That’s why I’m passionate about this. My background taught me the risk of unsecured environments. We can’t afford to have CUI data in the open.
Chris @ Stargazy: Let’s talk about the current shutdown. Every time government halts, contractors hold their breath and people lose jobs. How do you see this ripple through the GovCon ecosystem and what’s your playbook for companies to stay solvent?
Derek Hoyt: I’ve lived through shutdowns since 2013. They’ve become too common.
My main recommendation: diversify income streams.
If you’re a pure federal contractor, expand into SLED (state and local government). Services companies are hit hardest, but their offerings often translate well to local markets.
Shutdowns are temporary. SLED contracts can act as stopgap revenue.
At GovSignals, we integrate both federal and SLED data feeds to help contractors discover open adjacent markets they didn’t realize existed.
Chris @ Stargazy: So diversification is key — even into commercial markets?
Derek Hoyt: If possible, yes. Managing both commercial and government portfolios is hard, two different cultures and cadences.
But with the right leadership alignment, it’s possible. Teams just need to understand how compliance, procurement, and risk differ between markets.
Chris @ Stargazy: I’ve seen people on LinkedIn, capture and proposal professionals, losing jobs lately. What advice would you give individuals for more stability?
Derek Hoyt: Your skill, communication, organization, critical thinking, are highly transferable.
Many companies outside GovCon need that expertise. And now, with AI adoption accelerating, there’s huge demand for people who can bridge proposal experience with AI enablement.
Take time to learn how AI can enhance capture and proposal work. Show employers you can integrate those tools effectively — it makes you stand out immediately.
Chris @ Stargazy: If listeners want to learn more about you or GovSignals, where should they go?
Derek Hoyt: Visit www.govsignals.ai. And connect with me on LinkedIn — I’m always happy to chat. We also attend a lot of trade shows, so swing by our booth if you see us. We’re passionate about this industry and love hearing perspectives.
Chris @ Stargazy: Wonderful. Thank you so much for being on The Stargazy Brief. Hopefully, we’ll have you back again soon.
Derek Hoyt: Sounds good, Chris. Appreciate it.
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